VBA Forecast Engine Industry Impact Study

July 2020

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An offering from BDO’s Valuation & Business Analytics (VBA) Practice

In our quarterly Forecast Engine Industry Impact Study, our team of advisors showcase data analysis using BDO’s Forecast Engine tool. This analytic report provides economic and industry analyst data that details the change in landscape to various industries and how analyst opinions are evolving pre, during and post COVID, with insights and observations from BDO’s Valuation & Business Analytics professionals. The forecasting engine and report graphically display the estimated recovery shapes and periods for these industries.
 

Inaugural Issue - June 2020

The Path Ahead, Analysis of Analyst Estimates for Insights on the Economic Recovery

Following the initial shock of the pandemic-related economic crisis, business leaders are quickly taking inventory of the impact to their businesses and analyzing the path toward a potential return to pre-COVID-19 financial expectations. While no one claims to have a crystal ball, in this inaugural study we perform a systematic analysis of hundreds of thousands of market data points to help bring the future picture more into focus. Leveraging data algorithms and dashboard analytics, we’ve synthesized the estimates by industry to assist in answering three pressing questions:
  • How have forecasted revenues and earnings been impacted by the economic crisis and, on a relative basis, which industries are expected to be hit the hardest and which are expected to see lesser impact?
  • Is there an industry consensus that revenues and earnings will return to pre-COVID-19 expectations at some point in the foreseeable future? If so, what is the estimated timeline and path to that return to normalcy?
  • How strongly are market equity prices correlated with the post-COVID-19 analyst revisions? Are investors placing more emphasis on near-term impacts or an industry’s prospects of returning to pre-COVID-19 expectations in the more distant future? 



 

BDO's Forecast Engine Tool & Analysis Capabilities

Our Valuation & Business Analytics (VBA) professionals work to deliver a unique technology-enabled forecasting process centered around maximizing return, using data enablement and visualization strategies. Our Forecast Engine distills thousands of market data points and estimates into decision useful content through its visual dashboard interface.
 

Our Forecast Engine provides unprecedented insights to:

  • Support key business functions and financial planning & analysis (FP&A)
  • Assess strategic opportunities in mergers & acquisitions (M&A)
  • Aid enterprise governance functions
  • Support compliance requirements
 

Our holistic Forecast Engine provides our clients with a technology-enabled strategy to:

  • Assess forecast reasonableness
  • Identify forecast inconsistencies and assess potential bias
  • Determine economic drivers
  • Create meaningful scenarios and sensitivities