Retailers Bet on School and Holiday Shoppers; Expect Increased Sales for 2010

Notwithstanding disappointing spring and early summer sales figures retailers, on average, are expecting an uptick in spending in the second half of 2010, perhaps banking on stronger back to school sales and a more promising holiday shopping season.  Further, predictions among retail CFOs are for a sufficiently large change in direction to make 2010 a better year than 2009 overall.  In fact, in year-over-year overall sales, CFOs are expecting close to a 2 percent increase in 2010.

Additional results from BDO’s 2010 Retail Compass Survey of CFOs illustrate (mostly) good feelings across the board compared to 2009.

For the second half of 2010 against the same period in 2009, among comparable stores:
  • 44 percent expect sales to be higher (a 20 percent bump)
  • 38 percent expect sales to be about the same (an increase of 12 percent)
  • 18 percent expect lower sales (a 32 percent drop)
Comparable store sales for all of 2010:
  • 39 percent expect sales to be higher (a 24 percent jump)
  • 35 percent expect sales to hold steady (a 12 percent increase)
  • 24 percent expect lower sales (a 38 percent drop)
2010 even looks good company-wide:
  • For 2H 2010 v. 2H 2009, 44 percent (a 16% increase) expect higher sales; 33 percent (a 10% increase) expect sales to stay consistent; and 22 percent (a 27% drop) expect sales to be lower.
  • Total 2010 sales compared to 2009 are also expected to be higher.  Forty-seven percent of CFOs expect an increase (up from 19% in 2009), 30 percent expect sales to keep pace (an 8% increase), with only 21 percent expecting a decline (a 39% decrease)
What trends are you seeing in the market, your part of the country, or in your sector specifically?