Population: The Future of the United States

By Dan DTtieri, CPA
Having recently reached the 300 million mark, the U.S. population will grow by an additional 100 million in the next 40 years, according to a lengthy report by the Center for Environment and Population, a non-profit research, policy and public advocacy organization based New Canaan, Connecticut.

The detailed study contains a vast amount of information about where people will live, composition of households and the environmental challenges that will arise with respect to land and water use, forests, agriculture, energy and climate change.

Where We Live
The U.S. is the third most populous country in the world after China and India, but represents only five percent of the global population. A total of 80 percent of Americans live in urban areas. The South and West now contain over half the entire U.S. population. The Northeast remains the most densely populated region.

Over half of all Americans live within 50 miles of the coast, living in only 17 percent of our land area. Put in other terms, population density on the coasts is five times that of other parts of the country. Of the nation's ten fastest growing states, half are in the coastal south and another four are in the driest western areas, making them among the nation's most vulnerable "population/environment" hotspots.

Population Growth
Of the expected increase of 100 million persons in the next 40 years, 60 million are likely to represent natural increase (births minus deaths) while 40 million will be due to immigration. About one million legal immigrants come here each year, while the unauthorized immigrant population is estimated to be about 525,000 annually. The report says that about one-third of all immigrants later return to their home countries.

Population Distribution
The South and West are the fastest growing regions in the nation. A total of 57 percent currently live in the South and West following 15 years in which those two regions grew twice as fast as the Northeast and Midwest. In the coming decades, most growth is expected to occur in the South (52 percent) and West (35 percent) with much slower growth in the Midwest (7 percent) and Northeast (5 percent).

Population Composition
The makeup of a population-age, income, education, culture and race-determine where and how people live and develop land. Today, the 1-24 age group is about 35 percent of the total, while the 24-44 age group is 30 percent. Since these are the child- bearing ages, the momentum for future population growth already is in place.

Household Growth In recent years, the average U.S. household size has gone down (from 3.1 persons in 1970 to 2.6 persons in 2000). At the same time, the number of households has multiplied, now approximately 110 million. (In 1900, the number was about 20 million.)

While household size is decreasing, the average size of new single-family homes rose by more than 700 square feet in recent years. The combination of smaller household size and population growth is one important cause of the nationwide building boom since 1990, when 14 million new housing units were built. The State of Nevada saw a 60 percent increase in housing units between 1990 and 2000, far outstripping every other state.

Dan DiTieri is a director in the Real Estate Practice Group in the New York office of BDO Seidman, LLP. He can be reached at (212) 885-8378.

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